KalshiGeslotenBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdDeze markt is beslist: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Afgewikkeld: 14 aug 2026, 14:28
Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling
CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.
Waarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 14 aug 2026, 13:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0ptKoploper van 16 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
38 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 48,6K
Liquiditeit
€ 100,5K
Hoge liquiditeitMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 dagen geleden
Verouderd7 jul 26, 23:008 jul 27, 14:00
Waarschijnlijkheidstijdlijn
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Regels
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
