KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 86%
Marktkwaliteit
66 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 17,2
Liquiditeit
€ 13,3K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitBied / Laat
6.3% / 7.0%
Spread
0.7 pt
Strakke spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
29 dec 25, 15:00 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:Library of Congress
- The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
- The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
- For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
- Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
- An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026??
- Kalshi prijst No op 86% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.