Will Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
PolitiekOne-OffVerkiezingLatijns-AmerikaMisdaad en justitie3mndFutuurBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensHuidige impliciete kansNee 65%
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Manifold MarketsRegels
This market counts only releases between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time.
- It resolves "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is released from every form of imprisonment, including his current house arrest, per the STF's official decisions — even if he is later returned to custody.
- FULL DETAILS
- If, at any time between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time (February 1, 2027, 02:59 UTC), Jair Messias Bolsonaro ceases to be subject to any form of imprisonment (prisão) — including serving his sentence in a closed, semi-open or open regime, house arrest (prisão domiciliar, such as the humanitarian house arrest in force when this market was drafted) or pretrial detention — this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Releases or changes in custody recorded before October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC are not taken into account, even if the condition was met at an earlier date.
- The Primary Designated Source is the official decisions of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the execution of his sentence, published on portal.stf.jus.br.
