Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
This market will resolve based on whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is formally declared the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Democratic National Committee.
- To count as the nominee, Ocasio-Cortez must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under DNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.
- Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Democratic National Convention once the official nominee is declared.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Ocasio-Cortez is or is not the Democratic nominee, not minor technicalities of process.
- Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if she secures the required delegate majority and the DNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the DNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.