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Manifold MarketsRegels
This event predicts which of the listed individuals will cease to hold their office within the Trump administration at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC.
- An individual is considered to have left the administration if they resign, are dismissed, are reassigned outside the administration, or otherwise no longer occupy an official government position within it.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official announcement from the White House or the relevant U.S. government department confirming the individual’s departure.
- If official confirmation is delayed, incomplete, or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will consist of corroboration from multiple major, reputable U.S. news organizations reporting the individual’s confirmed departure based on official statements.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive outcome over minor technicalities in timing or wording, and Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation if a fair determination becomes impossible.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
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