PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 98%-0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
22,8 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
0.5% / 3.0%
Spread
2.5 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-18.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
24 lug 26, 16:06 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
- If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total.