Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.9%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 lug 26, 00:12 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.
Mercati aperti
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 154,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 148,6K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 92,3K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 84,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 79,3K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 altri esiti
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*??
- Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria