Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
0.5 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezione1m
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Democratic Party 56.1%+0.5ptIn testa tra 3 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
70 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
363 €
Liquidità
15,6K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
+19.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
18 ago 26, 19:27 UTC3 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress.
Manifold MarketsWhat party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms
Manifold MarketsWhich party will hold the majority in the US Senate of the 120th Congress in January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
MetaculusPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegole
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the party, between the the named outcome and the the named outcome, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- If the the named outcome and the the named outcome hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
2 piattaforme quotano attualmente questo mercato. La probabilità di riferimento ponderata per la liquidità di CoinRithm per Democratic Party è del 56%. Le quotazioni differiscono di circa 1 punto percentuale tra le piattaforme più distanti.
Riferimento CoinRithm Democratic Party 56% · 2 piattaforme · 1 pt di scarto tra venue
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? · Democratic Party 56%
