PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 66.3%+18.0pt
Qualita del mercato
37 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
130,4 €
Liquidità
890,9 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
26.0% / 41.0%
Spread
15.0 pt
Spread ampioComments
0
Variazione 7g
-36.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
20 lug 26, 19:541 gen 27, 4:59
Trend
Regole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe.
- If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercati aperti
Macro & EconomyPOLYMARKETBank of Korea decision in August?
- 25 bps hike-3.0pt72.3%
- No Change+5.5pt27.7%
- 50+ bps cut0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 47,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 8,4K €
KALSHIHow low will the S&P get this year?
- 6,300 or below+6.0pt23%
- 6,200 or below+3.0pt23%
- 6,100 or below15%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 687,1K €
KALSHIFear & Greed Index on Aug 21, 2026?
- Greed-2.0pt54.5%
- Neutral+20.0pt43.1%
- Extreme Greed-6.0pt0.8%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 20,4K €
KALSHIHow high will the S&P get this year?
- 7,800 or above99%
- 8,000 or above-0.4pt64%
- 8,200 or above-2.2pt36%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 915,3K €
KALSHIWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?
- Productivity74%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence-9.0pt70%
- Independent / Independence70%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 39K €
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+2.0pt46%
- Above $4.80+7.0pt40%
- Above $5.0028%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Which companies will conduct layoffs this year?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- ISM Services PMI - August 2026
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026
- TSA avg check-ins from Aug 17 to 23, 2026?
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
- US electricity price in August
- What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US bank failure by December 31, 2026??
- Polymarket quota No al 66% al 21 agosto 2026.
- Quando si risolve US bank failure by December 31, 2026??
- US bank failure by December 31, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato US bank failure by December 31, 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List").