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Dati al 10 ott 2026, 07:01 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
JD Vance 41.2%-0.1ptIn testa tra 31 esiti
Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaTrader
3,596
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
24 feb 26, 12:35 UTC7 nov 28, 13:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessRegole
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have **not** unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States. - If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree. - Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 81%
- Disponibile anche su Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 27%
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Disponibile anche su Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Disponibile anche su Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
