Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.5%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
14 ott 26, 23:43 UTC31 ott 26, 23:41 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?
Manifold MarketsNext Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by which date?
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KalshiWhich celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
KalshiWill Reckless Ben's video on Bricks and Minifigs have 10 million or more views before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves to YES if Zvi writes a post centered around Muse Wonder before the deadline.
- Resolves to NO if Zvi does not write such a post.
- Market will not resolve early to avoid leaking information, except if the post is up and this thus resolves YES.