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Dati al 15 ott 2026, 19:02 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 71.6%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo24 feb 25, 06:16 UTC21 gen 29, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump nominate Peter Thiel to serve on the Supreme Court of the United States during Trump II?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats nominate someone who's never run for office before for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democrat Nominate the next Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhich Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
KalshiRegole
I'll have to use my own judgement, but to clarify what I mean by "bizarre", I'm talking about someone like Matt Gaetz or Kash Patel - lacking experience, publicly flaunts the law, that sort of thing.
- The idea of this market is to determine whether Trump will try to appoint someone beyond the norm.
- Therefore, if they are "merely" as controversial as a sitting justice, that would be a NO.
- A nominee would not resolve YES on the basis of ideological extremism unless they were substantially further right than Thomas and Alito, and they would not resolve YES on the basis of potential crimes unless the accusations were more credible than those against Kavanaugh.
- Examples of what would be a clear YES would be Judge Judy or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- To give you an idea of where "the line" is: I would say Ted Cruz is probably the craziest example I could give that would still resolve NO.
