Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Tim Urban, the creator of waitbutwhy.com

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 29 ott 2026, 13:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 80%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato ieri

Obsoleto

9 gen 23, 18:07 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Tim Urban, the creator of waitbutwhy.com

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.