Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 67.9%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto16 feb 25, 23:23 UTC20 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will this question get 100k traders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill this question get 111 traders in 555 days? (October 23, 2026) UTC
Manifold MarketsWill this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRegole
Background Manifold prediction markets vary widely in trader participation, with factors like topic relevance, market duration, and visibility influencing engagement.
- Markets about meta-predictions (predictions about the market itself) can create interesting feedback loops where trader behavior directly influences the outcome.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the total number of unique traders who have placed at least one trade on this market exceeds 999.5 by January 1, 2030 at 12:00 AM UTC.
- Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- The number of traders can be verified through Manifold's public API and market statistics.
- Considerations
