Will there be new prediction market company before 2030?
CriptoOne-OffRegolamentazioneExchangeCoinbase3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 77%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 24 minuti fa
7 ott 26, 21:01 UTC31 dic 29, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2030, there will be a prediction market w/ 1M+ MAU that resolves predictions using an AI model exclusively
Manifold MarketsWill Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsSOL price on Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiETH price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiFirst to list tokenized stocks in the US?
PolymarketETH price range on Oct 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a new prediction market company or independent trading platform launches to the public between October 7, 2026, and December 31, 2029, inclusive.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify as a "new prediction market company or platform," the launch must meet all of the following criteria:
- New Entity/Platform: It must be a newly incorporated company, an independent startup, or a brand-new decentralized protocol launched after October 7, 2026.
- Exclusions: A new feature, tab, or service introduced by an already existing company (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, or Interactive Brokers adding event contracts) does not qualify, unless it is spun out into a distinct, newly incorporated corporate entity.