Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027??

Manifold Markets quota No al 86.8% al 3 novembre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027??

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2026.

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Previsione della comunità attuale

No 86.8%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 15 minuti fa

1 gen 26, 14:38 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

TLDR: If another similar blackout (such as the one from April 2025), happens before the end of 2026, it resolves YES.

Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Spain experiences a nationwide blackout affecting mainland peninsular Spain (excluding islands), that affects a significant portion of the country's electricity grid.
Resolution will be based on official statements from Red Eléctrica (Spain's grid operator) or Spanish government sources confirming a nationwide blackout event.
The market resolves NO if no such event occurs by the end date.
On April 28, 2025, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas.