Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
PoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteRussia / UcrainaCinaElezionePolitica USA8a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 02:36 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states 62.1%In testa tra 4 esiti
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states 62.1%Previsori
6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 24, 10:23 UTC31 dic 34, 22:59 UTC
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Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
- Resolves according to Metaculus.
- See the fine-print there.
- Trumps chances: @/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
- Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
- The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
