Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-Off1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.4%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 39 minuti fa
19 apr 26, 14:41 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "The state of AI safety in four fake graphs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post There are only four skills: design, technical, management and physical is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.