Will the US Senate's Filibuster rule be in place as-is on February 20th, 2027?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 82.8%
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22
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto1 nov 25, 19:56 UTC20 feb 27, 15:34 UTC
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This market resolves Yes if the rules of the senate are in their current (November 1st, 2025) position as of February 20th, 2027.
- If the nuclear option is used to change or suspend the rule in between now and then, this market can still resolve Yes if the old normal is formally re-asserted before resolution.
- This market is concerned with the rule as it applies to general acts of congress, not to previously expanded executive and SCOTUS nominations.
- That said, those partial reductions in the rule would be enough for a No resolution had this market covered those time periods.
- Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
- Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for partial carve-outs counting as material changes (resolving No):
