Will the US or Israel strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site before Oct 1, 2027?
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastGeopoliticaPoliticaSpaceUS Politics1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 50.3%
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7
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binary
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Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto9 set 26, 16:27 UTC30 set 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between market creation and October 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military or the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a confirmed kinetic military strike (e.g., airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone attacks) targeting Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground facility (also known in Farsi as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, located approximately 2 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment complex).
- This market resolves to NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Additional Conditions and Clarifications:
- Attribution: The strike must be publicly claimed by, attributed to, or widely acknowledged by officials from the US, Israeli, or Iranian governments, or confirmed by credible international news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, BBC, or The New York Times).
