Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 60%
Previsori
74
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto23 feb 24, 20:37 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be an Unsong musical by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Digger (2026) a musical?
Manifold MarketsCMA Awards: Musical Event of the Year
KalshiWill ""You Have Not Been a Good User" (LessWrong's ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
KalshiRegole
[image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
- To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not.
- If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO.
- If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A. THE FINE PRINT:
- When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
Mercati aperti
MusicKALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Choosin' Texas81.5%
- Sunflower5%
- Dai Dai3.4%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 15,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 15,4K €
KALSHITaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026)
- Above 13.9M99%
- Above 14M99%
- Above 13.7M99%
+28 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 13,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 13,8K €
KALSHIRunner-Up Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip12%
- Parvati5%
- SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video)1%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 12,2K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWestside Whimsy: First Week Album Equivalent Units
- Above 65K99%
- Above 10K99%
- Above 25K99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2K €
KALSHIStagecoach 2027: Headliner(s)
- Garth Brooks+27.0pt94%
- Jason Aldean25%
- Megan Moroney16%
+16 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 11,7K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWho Will Perform at Red Rocks in 2027?
- Blues Traveler89%
- Widespread Panic88%
- The String Cheese Incident+39.0pt86%
+32 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,7K €
- Westside Whimsy: First Week Pure Album Sales
- Drake: Highest daily view count in September 2026
- Top artist on Spotify in 2026?
- #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (September 18)
- #2 Spotify Song 2026
- #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Sep 26, 2026?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Top Artist on Spotify U.S. 2026
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube: Sep 15, 2026
- Top Song on Spotify in 2026?
- Billboard #1 Artist 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Unsong musical be good??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 60% al 15 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the Unsong musical be good??
- Will the Unsong musical be good? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the Unsong musical be good??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.