Will the total number of registered Democrats in the US be lower in the 2026 election than in the 2024 election?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 51.6%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 ore fa

Obsoleto

8 nov 24, 18:16 UTC4 nov 26, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

I'm using this metric to evaluate a prediction from Andrew Yang: Abandon Policing Cultural Behaviors | Blog | Andrew Yang

"In many ways, these all boil down to one thing: The Democratic Party should act more democratically.
But they will do none of these things.
Instead, they will begin jockeying for position within the party to run in 2028.
That is why more and more voters will look for options, like the Forward Party, or declare themselves independents as Trump returns to power.
Institutions incapable of reform get replaced."

Mercati aperti