Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028??

Manifold Markets quota No al 59.8% al 23 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028??

Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria

CinaOne-OffIA1a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 59.8%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 ore fa

Obsoleto

8 mar 25, 16:37 UTC1 gen 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the #1 ranked model on the LiveBench leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/) as of January 1st, 2028, is developed primarily by a Chinese company or research institution.
Specifically:
The model must be ranked #1 on the main LiveBench leaderboard on January 1st, 2028
The model must be primarily developed by a company headquartered in China or a Chinese research institution
Models developed by multinational companies will be considered "Chinese" only if the primary development team are based in China