Will the Israeli elections result in government formation?
PoliticaOne-OffScacchiElezioneMedio OrienteSport7m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 50.8%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo18 lug 26, 22:35 UTC31 mag 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
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PolymarketNext Israeli Minister of Finance?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Israeli government?
PolymarketWho will be a part of the next government of Israel?
KalshiWho will be Israeli defense minister after the election?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, a new government successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset (requiring at least 61 votes) and is sworn in.
- The market resolves to NO if the Knesset is dissolved and new snap elections are officially triggered without a government being successfully formed, or if no new government has won a vote of confidence and been sworn in by June 1, 2027.
- If the October 27, 2026 election is postponed, the resolution timeline will be extended accordingly.
- If the election is canceled or does not occur by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve N/A (this is highly unlikely).
- Current polling shows a highly fragmented electorate, raising the possibility of a coalition deadlock: