Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 75% al 30 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"??

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"? dovrebbe risolversi il 28 gennaio 2029.

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Sì 75%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

19 feb 25, 01:33 UTC28 gen 29, 15:59 UTC

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Basically, will Trump (or anyone else) SUCCEED in making the election very different in some way? I am talking:

Trump running again (not just try to, not just a write in campaign, actually having his name on ballot papers)
Falsified election results (on a large scale, not just localised corruption or errors with voting machines)
The election not occurring at all during 2028
I may make an exception if it's legitimately postponed, but definite no resolution if there is no election by July 4 2029
per the comments no US elections have been postponed for more than 150 years, so this is a very high bar