Previsione della comunità attuale
No 97.5%
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25
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
18 set 23, 07:29 UTC1 gen 27, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?
KalshiRegole
Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025:
- https://venuscloudlife.com/small-mission/
- https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/upcoming-missions/first-private-mission-to-venus/
- This market resolve YES if Rocket Lab succesfully delivers any kind of atmospheric measurement probe into the Venusian atmosphere by the end of 2026.
- The probe does not need to successfully collect data or function; it just needs to actually enter the atmosphere.
- I have chosen a close time of 2026 to accomodate both the travel time to Venus and smaller delays.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026??
- Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Currently Rocket Lab is planning on sending an atomospheric probe to Venus with a target launch date of January 2025: