Will Republicans win the early voting game and win the 2026 midterms?
PoliticaOne-OffElezioni di metà mandato USA 2026ElezionePolitica USA1m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.8%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo24 ott 26, 17:26 UTC30 nov 26, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if both of the following conditions are met regarding the 2026 United States midterm elections:
- Electoral Control: The Republican Party wins or retains a majority in both the U.S. Senate (at least 51 seats, or 50 seats if holding the vice presidency) and the U.S. House of Representatives (at least 218 seats) following the November 2026 elections, based on official certified results reported by major decision desks (e.g., AP News).
- Early Voting Margin: Registered Republicans (or voters casting early ballots on Republican primary/party-affiliated lists where tracked) cast more total early/absentee votes nationally than registered Democrats, as tracked and reported by nonpartisan tracking repositories such as the University of Florida Election Lab (formerly the U.S. Elections Project) or state election agency totals.
- If Republicans fail to achieve either condition—either failing to win/hold both chambers of Congress or failing to outpace Democrats in overall early/absentee ballots cast—the market resolves to NO.
- Note: Because "win the early voting game" is colloquial, the creator may update or narrow the specific data source and definition (e.g., aggregate early vote total vs. key battleground states) prior to election day.