Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 50% al 19 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms??

Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms? dovrebbe risolversi il 14 novembre 2026.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 50%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 minuti fa

15 ott 26, 07:38 UTC14 nov 26, 23:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

Because the prompt does not define a specific numeric threshold, baseline election year for comparison (e.g., relative to 2018 or 2022 turnout), or specific data source, the market creator should update these criteria to establish the specific benchmark for "low turnout" before the election.
If no specific threshold is set by the creator, this market will resolve to YES if official voter file analyses or reputable election data sources—such as the UF Election Lab or the U.S. Census Bureau's voting survey—indicate that turnout among self-identified Republicans or registered Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections fell below recent historical midterm baselines (e.g., 2018 and 2022).
Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
Voter participation in U.S. midterm elections is measured as a percentage of the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) or registered voters.
Party-specific turnout rates are typically evaluated post-election using state-level voter registration files, validated voter surveys, or exit polling data.