Previsione della comunità attuale
No 60.3%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 26, 18:13 UTC17 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegole
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
