Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 93.8%
Previsori
38
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto18 feb 24, 05:12 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first video generation model cost >$0.10/minute?
Manifold MarketsWill the first video generation model cost >$0.01/minute?
Manifold MarketsTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2030, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
- I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
- At least 1080p resolution
- At least 24 frames per second
- Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
- If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
