Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms?

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54.8% al 9 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms?

Will President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms dovrebbe risolversi il 3 novembre 2026.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 54.8%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 21 minuti fa

6 ott 26, 00:19 UTC3 nov 26, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between October 6, 2026, and the end of Midterm Election Day on November 3, 2026 (Eastern Time), President Donald Trump makes a verbal, physical, or behavioral mistake during a public appearance, rally, interview, or official event that is widely characterized as a "gaffe," "blunder," or "slip-up" by mainstream media.
To ensure an objective resolution, the following criteria apply:
Media Consensus: The event must be described as a "gaffe," "blunder," "slip-up," or synonymous term in the headlines or lead paragraphs of at least three publications within 72 hours of its occurrence.
Community Poll Fallback: If there is a dispute or ambiguity about whether an event meets these criteria, the market creator will launch a Manifold community poll.
The market will resolve to YES if 51% or more of the voters in the poll agree that a major gaffe occurred, and NO otherwise.