Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55.8%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto23 giu 26, 17:31 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta (Facebook) deliver on it's web3/metaverse vision before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 ET on Dec 31, 2027, Meta Platforms makes a real money prediction market product (the app reported by NYT as internally codenamed "Arena," or any successor/rebrand) publicly available to general users in at least one market, via official launch or public beta.
- Users should be able stake and win real money or real-money-equivalent value (cash, crypto, redeemable credits).
- Sweepstakes or promotional models count as long as they pay out real-money value.
- Pure play-money, points-only, or free-to-play versions with no cash-equivalent payout do not count.
- Waitlist, internal-only test or unreleased announcement does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
