Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54.5% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 54.5%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 19 ore fa

Obsoleto

30 mag 25, 12:31 UTC30 dic 40, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for data for 2024-2040 (inclusive), there is at least one case where any Japanese prefecture reports total average life expectancy of 90 years or more, according to the Japanese Mortality Database https://www.ipss.go.jp/p-toukei/JMD/index-en.asp or any official data published in English.
If by the time the first report for 2040 appears, there are no such cases, the market will be resolved to "No".
Background and Considerations
As of 2020, the highest total average life expectancies in Japan were observed in prefectures:
Shiga: 85.71 years