Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAGeopoliticaMedio Oriente2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94%
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9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 58 minuti fa
In ritardo20 gen 26, 07:01 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Israel formally annexes territory comprising at least 15% of Syria's total land area by December 31, 2029.
- For resolution purposes, "annexation" means Israel passes legislation or makes an official declaration claiming sovereignty over the territory, similar to the 1981 Golan Heights Law or the 2019 Trump administration recognition.
- Syria's total area is approximately 185,180 square kilometers, making 15% equal to roughly 27,777 square kilometers.
- Israel currently occupies over 1,700 square kilometers of territory (the 1,200 sq km Golan Heights plus over 500 sq km of additional southwestern Syrian territory), representing approximately 0.9% of Syria's total area.
- Resolution will be determined by official Israeli government statements, legislation, or international recognition of annexation.