Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Trump’s Tuesday 8pm ET ultimatum?
PoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticaMiddle EastManifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: No (99%)
Risolto: 10 ago 2026, 16:35
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
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Previsione della comunità attualeNo 99%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 giorni fa
Obsoleto4 ago 26, 13:4410 ago 26, 16:35
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Regole
Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.
- The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline.
- Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.
- Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum.
