Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Operazioni societarieOne-OffRegolamentazioneBusiness e aziendePolitica USAMacro ed economia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 52.6%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 25, 14:44 UTC1 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?
KalshiWhen will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?
KalshiFreddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
KalshiWill the USPS be privatized by the end of Trump's term as president?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?
Manifold MarketsRegole
GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.
- Privatization was a putative goal of the first Trump administration, but fairly little progress was made, in part due to large structural difficulties in accomplishing the goal, including the need for enormous amounts of capital to back the GSEs were they to go private.
- Some of those obstacles have lessened since the first Trump administration ended.
- Fannie and Freddie's equity both trade in the mid $4 range at the time this market opened, compared to about $1 at the recent lows during the Biden administration, and $31 that Bill Ackman suggested as a most likely IPO price.
- Resolution will be based on my personal judgement, and I will not trade in this question.
- Generally an event will count as a "YES" if it ends some or all of the existing government conservatorship and creates a clear path for private investors to be able to receive future cashflows resulting from the GSEs' future profits.
