Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 81%
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo11 dic 25, 10:57 UTC31 dic 99, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketRegole
This is a long-term YES/NO market about which “lasts longer”: Elon Musk as a living person, or the European Union as an ongoing political union (including clear institutional successors that carry on its identity).
- How this market resolves
- YES – Resolves YES if Elon Musk ceases to exist (see definition below) before the EU (as defined below) ceases to exist.
- NO – Resolves NO if the EU ceases to exist before Elon Musk ceases to exist.
- N/A – Resolves N/A if:
- The two events are effectively simultaneous in real-world terms (no sensible way to say which came first), or
