Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
One-OffSalute e medicinaCina4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2030 69.2%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto13 giu 26, 23:07 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
- Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
- Resolution Rules:
- YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.