Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95%
Previsori
121
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ott 23, 01:36 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiSpotify Premium Family Plan price increase this year?
KalshiSpotify Premium Duo Plan price increase this year?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.
- The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail.
- I've been asked not to share the details.
- Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out.
- (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.
- Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deadline for Resolution: The market will now automatically resolve as NO at the end of 2026 unless BTE demonstrates something real.
Mercati aperti
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 351,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 351,4K €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 altri esiti
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,7K €
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 altri esiti
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will BTE's secret plan work??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will BTE's secret plan work??
- Will BTE's secret plan work? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will BTE's secret plan work??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.