Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto12 set 26, 20:13 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsAmelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketTSA avg check-ins from Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
KalshiRegole
Austin is of course a founder of Manifold and author of such bangers as “In defense of SBF.”
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), Austin Chen publicly expresses regret regarding his decision to hire Caroline Ellison at Manifund.
- Definition of "publicly regret": Austin Chen must explicitly state in a public forum that hiring Caroline Ellison was a "mistake," "error in judgment," or that he "regrets" the decision, or use substantially equivalent phrasing conveying that he wishes he had not hired her.
- Eligible Sources: Public posts, replies, or comments by Austin Chen on X/Twitter (e.g., via his handle @akrolsmir), his Substack newsletter The Fox Says, Manifold Markets, or direct quotes attributed to him in reputable news publications (such as Bloomberg or Business Insider).
- If Caroline Ellison is terminated or resigns from Manifund without Austin Chen publicly stating that the original hiring decision was a mistake or source of regret, this market will not resolve YES.