Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?
Politica USAOne-OffGeopoliticaMedio Oriente1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 60%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto16 mar 26, 12:06 UTC1 gen 28, 11:41 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
PolymarketWill Iran successfully attack major oil terminal in Persian Gulf by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Gulf of Aqaba between Egypt and Saudi Arabia have started construction by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsKuwait is the first real democracy in the Gulf
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.
- These include but are not limited to: - Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases - Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases - Restricting airspace access to the USA - Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict
- The deal must: 1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran 2) Sideline the USA* 3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides
- *A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered.
- (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker...
- I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)
