Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
AzioniTecnologiaOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.4%
Previsori
44
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 48 minuti fa
In ritardo23 set 24, 16:56 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.
