Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
Politica USAOne-OffAmerica Latina2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 16:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 76.7%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 26, 02:05 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
