Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 52.4% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO).

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Sì 52.4%

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Aggiornato 14 ore fa

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1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC

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This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO).

It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human".
In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI.
Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours.
Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.
Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.