Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 68.6%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo22 ago 24, 13:42 UTC1 gen 41, 07:59 UTC
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The US has had a rich history of 3rd Party Candidates winning House of Representatives seats including 8 Reps from the Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party, and members from the Liberals, American Labor Party, and more.
- But since the 1950s, the only non-Democrats/Republicans have been Independents.
- Will there be an elected member of the US House of Representatives with a party affiliation that is not with the Democratic or Republican parties by the end of 2040? Independents don’t count.
- It doesn’t matter if they caucus with either major party, nor does it matter if they’ve taken office by the time of market closing.
- Any person winning a US House election from a 3rd party will Resolve YES.
- If someone switches to a 3rd party while holding a seat, they must be reaffirmed by their constituents before this Resolves YES.
