Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.5%
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34
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto2 feb 25, 22:33 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?
Manifold MarketsTrump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?
PolymarketWill "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)
Manifold MarketsWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
PolymarketRegole
A “high-level Trump admin member” could be any of the President, Vice President, cabinet-level members (including acting members), or the press secretary.
- “Mentioning the Zizians” can be either direct or indirect, though indirect references must be specific and unambiguous in context, such as “the vegan trans Bay Area cult,” or “that group” in response to a question specifically about the Zizians.
- Must be public remarks.
- This question is mostly intended to operationalize worlds where the Zizians become huge national news for one reason or another.
