Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSocietà e culturaSalute e medicinaMacro ed economiaManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo global catastrophe 60%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
62
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto21 lug 23, 00:41 UTC2 gen 00, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
- If multiple global catastrophes occur, resolves based on the first.
- [link preview]See also:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-global-catastrophe-kill-at-l-d006e1e39ca8)
