Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.7%
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 22:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill any country leave NATO in 2026?
FutuurWill USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the next country to leave NATO?
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
Mercati aperti
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Will a country leave NATO this year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria