Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 83.5%
Previsori
86
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto4 lug 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill a PS5 cost >%10 more to US consumers as a result of tariffs before the 2026 US midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill the number of Tornado reports exceed 50 in the US during October 2026?
ForecastExWill the number of Tornado reports exceed 60 in the US during October 2026?
ForecastExWill average air fares exceed $400 in Q3 2026 in the US?
ForecastExWill average air fares exceed $390 in Q3 2026 in the US?
ForecastExRegole
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
