Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 83.3%
Previsori
81
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto4 lug 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?
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ForecastExPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegole
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- South Carolina Senate winner?
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- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)?
- Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) dovrebbe risolversi il 30 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?