Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeEric Lucan 61%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto15 giu 26, 16:583 nov 26, 23:59
Trend
Regole
the named outcome and the named outcome were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June.
- At this stage, it is a near certainty that both candidates will move on to the run-off election on November 3, 2026.
- To cover the unlikely possibility that one of the two candidates is not certified to move on to the run-off election, this market offers a third choice "Other."
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election for the California State Assembly District 12 seat.
- The primary source of truth for resolution will be the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
Mercati aperti
Politics
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.7pt100%
- Seth Moulton-0.6pt0%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 3,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17.4%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.3%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.3%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 180,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.3pt39%
- Renan Santos+0.7pt3%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat??
- Manifold Markets quota Eric Lucan al 61% al 1 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat??
- Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat? dovrebbe risolversi il 3 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: the named outcome and the named outcome were the two leading candidates in the California Primaries that took place in early June.